NFL betting: where to start, and how to win

2 minute read

Whether you’re fresh off learning how to place your first spread bet or you’re a seasoned veteran, there are always opportunities to level up your NFL betting game. Here are six simple steps to get your win streak rolling.

1. Understand the Betting Basics

Before diving into advanced stats or contrarian plays, knowing the fundamentals are key:

Point Spread: The most common NFL wager. A team must win or lose by a certain number of points for your bet to hit. If the Patriots are -7.5 against the Jets, New England must win by at least eight points
Moneyline: Simply pick which team wins straight up. Odds are expressed as +/- figures (e.g., +170 means a $100 bet returns $170 profit)
Over/Under (Totals): Bet whether the combined score will be over or under a set number
Prop Bets: “Proposition” bets on specific occurrences (e.g., Josh Allen to score 2+ rushing touchdowns). They’re a fun way to get creative with your wagers, and can provide hidden value opportunities for experienced bettors
Parlays: Combine multiple wagers into one ticket for a bigger payout, but all legs must win

2. Shop for the Best Lines

One of the easiest edges in sports betting is simply line shopping. Line differences of just 0.5 points can swing your long-term profitability dramatically. Different books may set slightly different odds or spreads. By having accounts at multiple sportsbooks, you can compare:

Spreads: Look for that half-point difference (e.g., 6.5 vs. 7)
Moneylines: A few points in juice can add up
Promotions: Signup bonuses, referral codes, and odds boosts are free indirect value

3. Lean Into Data, But Beware Pitfalls

Data is your friend, but it’s not a crystal ball. Here’s how to use it wisely:

Historical Trends: Look at head-to-head stats, home/away splits, and recent form (around the last five games)
Situational Angles: Back teams off a big emotional win? Consider how motivation and fatigue factor in
Injury Reports: A missing QB or defensive anchor can shift a game more than any stat sheet
Weather Conditions: Wind, rain, or snow can dramatically affect totals and passing-heavy teams
Representativeness: Overfitting to tiny historical sample sizes is a trap. A team’s 2021 performance in Week 5 rarely predicts their fortunes today

4. Manage Your Bankroll Like a Pro

Smart bettors treat their bankroll like an investment portfolio. Here are some guiding rules:

Flat Betting: Stake the same percentage of your bankroll on each wager for straights
Unit System: Create “units” (e.g., 1 unit = 2% of your bankroll) and bet in those increments, with fewer units allocated to riskier parlays
Avoid Chasing Losses: Doubling up after a loss often leads to bigger blowups

5. Develop a Specialty Angle

The best bettors aren’t experts at everything; instead, they find a niche. By focusing, you’ll build deeper domain knowledge and notice value that broad-strokes bettors miss. Historical examples include:

Sharp Over/Under: Master totals in windy stadiums
Contrarian Underdogs: Back road dogs that public money hates
Prop Specialist: Drill down on passer ratings or rushing yards props

6. Keep Learning and Stay Disciplined

The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep these principles in mind:

Continuous Education: Subscribe to podcasts, read analytics blogs, and watch film breakdowns
Emotional Control: Betting on your favorite team? Set limits to avoid tilt
Community Engagement: Join dedicated groups and platforms, to learn from the sharpest sports betting cappers, such as Dan Gamble and Parlay Chef