MLB betting: where to start, and how to win

2 minute read

Whether you’re trying to decipher pitching matchups or wondering what a run line even is, there’s always opportunities to sharpen your MLB betting. Baseball might seem slower than other sports, but make no mistake: it's one of the richest data-driven environments for bettors. Time to swing into action, with six simple steps to get your win streak rolling below.

1. Know the Core MLB Bet Types

First pitch, here are your standard betting markets:

Moneyline: Bet on which team will win the game outright. In MLB, underdogs win more often than in sports like football or basketball, so value hunting is key
Run Line: Baseball’s version of the spread. Typically set at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog, with varying odds
Totals (Over/Under): Bet whether the combined runs scored by both teams will be over or under the line set by the sportsbook
First 5 Innings (F5): Focuses on the first five innings only, great for isolating starting pitcher impact
Player Props: Wager on individual outcomes like strikeouts, hits, or home runs

2. Understand Baseball's Unique Betting Angles

MLB offers a unique rhythm and set of variables that set it apart:

Starting Pitchers Matter a Lot: The identity of the starter dramatically shifts lines. Always check who’s taking the mound
Bullpen Strength: A strong or tired bullpen can flip a game late. Don’t ignore the relievers
Lineup Cards: Rest days are frequent in baseball. Check for key absences
Lefty vs. Righty Splits: Some hitters crush lefties. Some pitchers struggle against righty-heavy lineups. Use platoon data to your advantage
Weather Conditions: The skies can influence totals, especially in hitter-friendly parks like Coors Field. More elevation, more dingers

3. Lean on Stats, But Not Too Hard

Analytics are baseball’s bread and butter, but be smart about which ones matter:

xFIP and ERA: Advanced pitching stats help you spot under- or overperforming arms
wOBA and ISO: These stats highlight offensive efficiency and power
BABIP: A high or low Batting Average on Balls in Play can suggest luck-based regression is coming
Recent Form: Baseball is streaky. Ride hot bats or fade cold ones

4. Smart Bankroll = Long-Term Gains

Even the sharpest MLB bettors hit cold streaks. Here’s how to survive the slump:

Flat Betting: Stake a consistent percentage of your bankroll on every straight play
Avoid Heavy Favorites: In a sport with so much variance, -200 favorites can be traps for novice bettors
Use Units: Evaluate success in units won/lost, not raw dollars. Always place fewer units on riskier parlay bets

5. Develop a Specialty

MLB’s 2,400+ regular season games means there's plenty of room to go deep:

First 5 Innings Specialist: Focus solely on starting pitcher battles
Strikeout Props: Target specific K props using batter tendencies
Underdog Hunter: Seek mispriced dogs with strong pitching or value lineups
Weather Totals: Study wind and temperature impact on run production

6. Stay the Course, Even in Extra Innings

Baseball rewards the patient:

Stay Current: Listen to MLB betting podcasts or follow sharp bettors, such as Dan Gamble and Parlay Chef, on social platforms
Ignore the Noise: A fluke bloop single shouldn't rattle your model
Adjust Gradually: Don’t overreact to one bad beat
Enjoy the Grind: Betting on MLB is a long game. Learn to love the rhythm